WCCUSD Budget Projections: Incomplete Pictures Have Real Consequences
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On Wednesday (April 15), WCCUSD staff will present on district demographics and enrollment projections, one factor in the district’s budget outlook. Before that meeting, it’s worth asking: what financial projections are driving major decisions this year and do they give the board and the community a full and accurate picture?
From what we have seen in public meetings, the answer is no. And this limited picture is having real consequences.
What the numbers show, and what they leave out
At the March 11 school board meeting, district leaders presented the Second Interim Budget Report (report, slides), a required mid-year update on current spending and projections for the next two years. The outlook, from the district’s perspective, is bleak with reserves expected to be fully depleted within two years, with an $8.7 million shortfall by 2027-28. As a result, the district issued a “qualified” self-certification. (Learn more about budget certifications here).
Here is the problem: these projections include all the projected risks (continued enrollment declines, reduced COLA adjustments, and other risk factors) but exclude significant new funding proposed in the Governor’s budget, which could bring tens of millions of additional dollars to WCCUSD. The rationale? The new funding is not guaranteed yet. Why is potential downside heavily represented, while potential upside is entirely left out?
We have observed this pattern across multiple years of monitoring the WCCUSD budget cycle. Projections are consistently skewed toward the worst-case, distorting decision-making and creating a culture of scarcity and fear. This leads to the gutting of programs and positions – harming students, families, educators, and staff and unnecessarily destabilizing our schools. Families and staff watching the process have serious questions about the integrity and honesty of district leadership.
What honest, transparent budgeting could look like
What would it look like if the district were to present more honest, balanced, and complete projections? At a minimum, the board and community should be able to see multiple scenarios side-by-side. This would look like budgets that reflect:
- A scenario where 100% of the Governor’s proposed funding comes through
- A scenario where 50% of the Governor’s proposed funding comes through
- A scenario where 25% of the Governor’s proposed funding comes through
- A scenario where 0% of the Governor’s proposed funding comes through
These increased revenue scenarios should be paired with a range of revenue decline projections such as:
- ADA reduction scenarios
- COLA adjustments scenarios
We would also hope that district leaders are in close conversations with state leadership to be able to offer the board and public an informed prediction of what the final state budget will include. All future budgeting in a projection and that projection must balance both risk and opportunity.
While historically, the final revenue amount falls somewhere between best and worst case scenarios – presenting a dynamic look to the future, with clear graphics and slides, would allow decisions grounded in possibility and the full picture, not just worst-case assumptions. It would also go a long way to begin to rebuild trust with the community.
Real consequences, already unfolding
Fear-based projections have led to fear-based decisions, and those decisions are already having an impact.
The board has approved significant reductions to staffing and programs. Students and teachers from Kennedy High School have spoken out about the elimination of courses like ethnic studies, CTE, and Spanish for Spanish speakers. Across the district, staff face layoffs and uncertainty about next year.
That instability has consequences. A recent court ruling found WCCUSD out of compliance with state law because of its staffing of classrooms with uncredentialed substitute teachers for extended periods. The court rejected the district’s argument that it had done everything possible, finding that it had not taken all available steps to fill vacancies. (Read more at EdSource and Richmondside).
Decisions driven by overly pessimistic projections risk making this worse. Layoff notices push educators to seek more stable positions elsewhere, increasing vacancies. Reduced programs prompt families to explore other options, accelerating enrollment decline. Diminished opportunities reduce student engagement and attendance. Because funding is tied directly to enrollment and attendance, these losses can outweigh the savings from the cuts that triggered them, accelerating the very decline the cuts were meant to prevent.
What can you do?
Budget and program decisions for next year are being finalized right now. Speak up at Parent Advisory Committee meetings, LCAP feedback sessions, and board meetings. Advocate not just for specific programs, but for decisions to be made based on the full picture. The community deserves projections that are honest about risk and opportunity, so that cuts aren’t made out of fear of a future that may never arrive.
If you want to learn more about school governance, finances, and build your leadership skills, consider joining GO’s Family Leadership Program.
What’s happening in WCC Schools?
Looking for a clearer picture of how schools are performing in West Contra Costa Unified School District? Our WCC School Dashboard Guide (English | Spanish) breaks down the latest data and what it means for your child.
[Download the California School Dashboard Guide for West Contra Costa]